History suggests that first-year presidents should keep several considerations in mind as they take up these tasks. He served at the White House National Security Council from 1997-1999. Antholis, director and CEO of the nonpartisan Miller Center at the University of Virginia. Another one, published here, is a collection of first-year advice from former presidents and their top advisers, curated by Michael Nelson.īy William J. We are publishing two of these essays in Politico Magazine: This essay is an essay on the promises and perils of the first year in office, by H.W. The First Year: POTUS 2017 will focus on the key issues the new president must confront, viewed through the clarifying lens of history and amplified with pragmatic policy prescriptions from leading scholars and experts. On October 15, the Miller Center is launching an ambitious two-year project devoted to the next president’s make-or-break first year. It’s also full of first-year crises: The outbreak of the Civil War in 1861, the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, the 1993 truck bombing of the World Trade Center and the massive attacks on all occurred during the first year of a new presidency. Bush’s failed appointment of John Tower for secretary of defense to John F. Presidential history is full of first-year legislative successes (the New Deal and the Great Society, to name just two) and costly first-year missteps-from George H.W. The decisions taken during those intensive 12 months usually shape the entire arc of an administration, for better or worse. So is the first 100 days, despite the ubiquitous countdown clocks that cable TV news stations will deploy.įar more important to a new president is the crucial first year in the White House. But if the next president wants his or her time in office to matter, the first day is the wrong milepost to choose. We’re 15 months from Inauguration Day, and yet various would-be presidents have already begun making bold “first day” promises. No less do the American people examine the foreign-policy talents and aspirations of new presidents. Since 1945 the United States has played the predominant role in world affairs other governments and peoples scrutinize new presidents to assess how this predominance will be exercised. Third, they must establish their leadership of the foreign-policy apparatus. That is, they must tell Congress and the American people what they want to accomplish, and they must take first steps toward achieving their goals. Second, they must articulate and initiate domestic policy agendas. In particular, they must select Cabinet secretaries and individuals to fill the many other top positions in the executive branch. Bush-have executive experience not possessed by former members of Congress, who nonetheless compensate by having greater knowledge of the legislative process.ĭifferences aside, first-year presidents face similar tasks, of which three stand out. Finally, former governors-Theodore Roosevelt, Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Reagan, Clinton, George W. Presidents who are greeted by friendly Congresses-Woodrow Wilson, Harding, Franklin Roosevelt, and Lyndon Johnson-have a head start on their policy agendas. Presidents who enter office with decisive popular mandates- Warren Harding, Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan-enjoy unusual credibility. Bush, for instance- experience similar pressure. Presidents who win election by virtue of the continuing popularity of living predecessors-William Howard Taft and George H. Accidental presidents like Theodore Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson typically feel obliged to assure the American people that they will seek to continue the work of their untimely departed predecessors. The different ways in which presidents enter the White House often shape their first-year prospects and agendas. He is the author, most recently, of REAGAN: The Life. Chair in History at the University of Texas at Austin.
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